The Week That Shaped the World 27 June – 4 July 2025

1. Moscow Recognises the Taliban

On 3 July, something quietly monumental happened. Russia became the first major power to officially recognise the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Not as a bargaining chip. Not with caveats. But as a fact.

In a statement following a meeting in Kabul, Russian ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov informed Afghan foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi that Moscow now recognises the Taliban-led state. No fanfare, no televised signing — just diplomatic protocol and a handshake.

For Russia, it’s a pragmatic pivot. With the West absent and China calculating, Moscow steps in as the first to admit what others still euphemise: the Taliban have won, and they’re not going anywhere.

Some call it opportunism. Others see it as realpolitik in its purest form. Either way, a new axis is forming — not of ideology, but of inconvenience.

"When You Can’t Beat The Status Quo, Recognise It."

2. Warsaw’s War Game

It’s no longer about whether NATO will fight. It’s about when.

On 3 July, Poland announced it would deploy 5,000 troops to its borders with Germany and Lithuania. 

Officially, the move is about migration control. Unofficially, it's about Moscow. Chief of the General Staff Wiesław Kukuła didn’t mince words: the Baltics are next.

4,000 troops will be stationed near Frankfurt an der Oder. Another 1,000 near Suwałki — the narrow strip that keeps Kaliningrad from the rest of Belarus. The logic is simple: if Ukraine falls, the dominoes tip north.

It’s a signal not to Berlin or Brussels, but to Washington: Poland won’t wait for permission to defend the frontier.

"When Allies Get Nervous, Borders Get Crowded."

3. The Guns Stop Here

There’s no press conference. No ceremony. Just silence — and absence.

The United States has stopped weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Contracts signed under Biden are frozen. 

Shipments halted. Ammunition delayed indefinitely. The new White House doctrine? No more foreign wars that don't pay.

According to Pentagon sources, the remaining stockpiles will last through August. After that, Kyiv is on its own. 

President Trump hasn’t officially declared the shift, but insiders describe it as deliberate pressure on Zelensky to negotiate — with Russia, not with NATO.

Moscow is watching. So is Warsaw. And somewhere in Donetsk, a soldier counts shells.

"Peace Talks Often Begin With Logistics."

4. Britain’s Quiet Expulsion Law

It’s a piece of legislation with barely a headline — but a shadow that stretches far.

This week, the UK Parliament introduced a bill allowing the deportation of any foreign national who receives a police warning — no conviction necessary. Just a caution. No trial. No defence. No due process.

Critics say it’s authoritarian creep. Supporters call it sovereignty. Either way, it turns every interaction with law enforcement into an immigration risk.

Human rights groups are fuming. The Home Office shrugs. And somewhere in Westminster, a speechwriter polishes the line: “Britain for the British.”

"The Slippery Slope Doesn’t Warn You It’s Slippery."

5. Baku’s Burning Point

Alliances don’t collapse. They corrode.

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan reached new highs this week after Moscow detained several members of an Azerbaijani-linked criminal network. Baku responded by arresting Russian nationals. The exchange wasn’t diplomatic. It was surgical.

Behind the scenes, Ankara watches with interest. Analysts suggest Turkey is encouraging Baku to test Moscow’s resolve — a calculated jab, not a punch.

For the Kremlin, it's a distraction. For NATO, a lever. For Azerbaijan, a rehearsal.

"You Don’t Have To Fight A War To Start One."

6. The ECB’s Mirror

When central bankers start quoting geopolitics, you know the numbers aren’t enough.

This week, the European Central Bank published minutes from its June meeting — and for the first time in years, the word "uncertainty" appeared more than "inflation." The culprit? Not prices, but politics.

With the US swinging tariffs like a wrecking ball and China tightening capital controls, the ECB sees clouds on the horizon. Eurozone growth may hold steady, but the winds are shifting. And the euro — buoyed by haven demand — is now a blessing and a burden.

Exports shrink. Expectations wobble. Frankfurt adjusts its tone.

"You Can’t Print Predictability."

7. Stars, Stripes, and Payrolls

147,000 new jobs. That was the number.

June’s US employment report came in stronger than expected, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. Markets cheered. Economists parsed. Politicians postured.

But beneath the applause lies the pattern: resilience amid risk. The US economy continues to expand, defying forecasts that expected a slowdown by mid-year. Consumers are spending. Businesses are hiring. And the Fed, caught between data and doubt, is treading lightly.

Investors took the numbers as proof of American exceptionalism. Others saw a warning: overheating in disguise.

"Full Employment Feels A Lot Like Overconfidence."

8. Hanoi’s Handshake

While Washington and Beijing shadowbox, Hanoi signs.

The US and Vietnam announced a series of trade adjustments this week — reducing tariffs, opening tech channels, and launching joint supply chain audits. It’s the clearest sign yet that Vietnam is becoming the global economy’s new pivot point.

Cheap labour meets rising skills. Proximity to China, without being China. For multinationals weary of geopolitical risk, Vietnam is the compromise.

Markets noticed. The EU cheered. And Beijing — though silent — surely read the memo.

"Sometimes The Smallest Country Carries The Biggest Leverage."

9. Dollar Dynamics

The jobs report didn’t just move markets — it moved money.

The US dollar strengthened this week as traders slashed bets on a July rate cut. Treasury yields climbed. Bond prices slipped. 

And the euro — buoyed just days before by ECB caution — lost steam.

In foreign exchange markets, the greenback is back. Not because it’s beloved. But because, in a world of risk, liquidity is religion.

"Nothing Looks Safer Than The Currency That’s Causing The Chaos."

10. From OpenAI to SSI: The Builder Returns

He left a lab. Now he’s building a firewall.

Ilya Sutskever, co-founder and former chief scientist of OpenAI, re-emerged this week at the helm of Safe Superintelligence Inc. The name is forgettable. The ambition isn’t.

SSI aims to focus on alignment, containment, and what insiders call “conscious calibration.” The goal: powerful AI that doesn’t misfire. Investors, predictably, are lining up. Meta poached his former CEO, Daniel Gross. So Sutskever returned — not with revenge, but with a roadmap.

Meanwhile, the EU prepares its AI Code of Practice, hoping to regulate what Silicon Valley is too eager to accelerate.

"Every AI Startup Claims To Save The World. This One’s Trying To Prevent It."