The Week That Shaped the World 20–27 June 2025

1. When Rockets Fall Silent, Markets Yawn

It’s a curious feature of modern capitalism: the more missiles fly, the more indifferent the markets become. This week, despite continued hostilities between Israel and Iran — with yet another round of drone strikes, shadow assassinations, and fiery speeches — global oil markets barely blinked. Brent hovered at $70, down from its jittery highs of last week. Traders are either braver than generals or simply deaf to the symphony of war.

What changed? Nothing, except the narrative. The West framed the conflict as "contained." Washington nodded. Riyadh shrugged. And Wall Street, as ever, preferred earnings to ethics.

But beneath the calm lies the real movement. Tankers rerouted. Insurance premiums recalculated. Diplomats whispering in Geneva. This wasn’t de-escalation — it was reclassification. Less a crisis, more a cost centre.

“The Price Of Peace Is Just Another Line On The Spreadsheet.”

2. NATO’s €5 Trillion Suggestion

From the marble halls of The Hague came a simple proposal: spend more. Specifically, 5% of GDP. NATO’s latest summit was less a defence meeting and more a fundraiser. Norway pledged support. Spain balked. The UK muttered about "fiscal prudence," which roughly translates to: "We’re skint, but we like the idea."

This wasn’t about deterrence. It was about Donald.  Trump is back in the White House, and NATO knows it. If the alliance can’t pay its way, he might just invoice it.

The irony? While the West debates budgets, the East deploys battalions. Strategic parity, it seems, now costs extra.

“If You Can’t Buy Peace, At Least Rent Preparedness.”

3. Europe’s Firewall Gets a Firmware Update

The EU finally made it official: Chinese companies are no longer welcome at the government procurement table. The policy, aimed at "protecting technological sovereignty," effectively bars major Chinese firms from public tenders across the bloc.

This isn’t about data privacy or national pride. It’s about silicon. Europe missed the chip war, the cloud race, and the AI gold rush. Now it’s scrambling to build a fortress — not from stone, but from semiconductors.

China, predictably, called it "economic discrimination." Brussels, equally predictably, replied with bureaucratic Latin. Somewhere in between lies the slow decoupling of the global economy.

“In The 21st Century, Wars Aren’t Declared. They’re Procured.”

4. Jakarta’s Billion-Dollar Bet

In a rare act of both ambition and environmental logic, Indonesia launched a $6 billion initiative to manufacture EV batteries on home soil. The project, a partnership with South Korean and Japanese firms, marks Southeast Asia’s biggest push yet into the green energy arms race.

The location? Kalimantan — better known for deforestation than decarbonisation. The irony is thick, but the opportunity is real. With global demand for EVs skyrocketing, the country’s rich nickel reserves have become a strategic asset.

Of course, there are concerns: corruption, logistics, infrastructure. But Indonesia, often the overlooked middle child of Asia, might just have timed this right.

“In The Battery Of Nations, It Helps To Own The Lithium.”

5. India: The Calm in the Geopolitical Storm

While the world flirts with chaos, India continues to hum a different tune. The Reserve Bank of India this week reaffirmed strong growth projections, noting that the economy remains resilient despite rising global tensions.

The reasons? A diversified export base, robust domestic consumption, and — crucially — a population still spending. Inflation is manageable, the rupee is stable, and even the monsoon is behaving.

Yes, structural problems persist. But while Europe debates austerity and China fiddles with stimulus, India is simply doing business.

“In A World Of Noise, Confidence Is The Quietest Signal.”

6. Wall Street Flirts With Euphoria

The S&P 500 nearly broke another record this week, fuelled by tech gains, consumer confidence, and a pervasive sense that the worst is over. It's a dangerous mood — the kind that precedes either a bull run or a dramatic comeuppance.

Investors have short memories and long positions. The Fed’s cautious tone did little to dampen spirits. For now, optimism sells.

Of course, one bad CPI reading could spoil the party. But for the moment, the dance floor is crowded.

“Market Confidence Is Like Champagne — Bubbly, Expensive, And Prone To Headaches.”

7. The Quiet Kings of Cashflow

Dividend ETFs — once the domain of pensioners and the risk-averse — are having a moment. In the first half of 2025, they’ve outperformed growth funds in volatility-adjusted returns.

Why? Because nothing says “maturity” like quarterly income. In an age of AI hype, many investors are rediscovering the virtues of cash.

Vanguard’s VYM, Schwab’s SCHD, and BlackRock’s HDV are among the winners. It’s less sexy than crypto, but more reliable than politics.

“When Innovation Stutters, Dividends Whisper: ‘We Never Left.’”

8. Retail’s Long Winter

The UK’s retail sector continues its elegant decline. CBI’s latest index recorded its ninth consecutive month of falling sales, with June’s reading at –46. That’s not a slowdown. That’s a death march.

Blame inflation. Blame interest rates. Blame Brexit. But mostly blame reality: people have less to spend, and less reason to go outside.

Even summer sales haven’t helped. Consumers are holding out. Retailers are holding on. And landlords are holding their breath.

“You Know A Recession Is Real When The Mannequins Look Worried.”

9. The FTSE Shrugs

Despite grim retail numbers, both the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 posted modest gains. Why? Because markets, like cats, are indifferent to your suffering.

Mining stocks rose. Defence contractors rallied. Energy firms recovered. The consumer sector languished, but nobody told the index.

In truth, this is the bifurcation of the British economy: the City thrives, the High Street dies. But as long as dividends flow, who’s counting?

“If The Economy Falls In A Mall And No One Trades It, Does It Make A Sound?”

10. Thinking Machines, Real Money

In what may become the most overfunded idea since WeWork, Thinking Machines Lab — founded by ex-OpenAI CTO Mira Murati — raised $2 billion at a $10 billion valuation. The product? Unknown. The pitch? "Human-centric AI."

Investors, predictably, swooned. Because in Silicon Valley, pedigree beats prototype. Murati, once hailed as the architect behind ChatGPT's rise, has now emerged as the oracle of its successor.

What exactly is being built? No one knows. But there are whispers of AI governance platforms, neural alignment modules, and something called "Synthetic Empathy."

Whatever it is, it’s hot. And investors, still drunk on NVIDIA’s fumes, are ready to buy anything with vowels.

“In The Age Of AI, Abstraction Is The New Asset Class.”