The Week That Shaped the World 18 – 25 July 2025

Maidan in Ukraine

1. Ukraine’s Eternal Square Dance: The Maidan Never Dies


History doesn’t repeat — it just jumps up and down with a flag.

It’s happening again. Kyiv. Kharkiv. Lviv. The chant. The flags. The oddly synchronised bouncing of youths in overpriced trainers, screaming for integrity while surrounded by... well, none. This time, it’s over the threatened repeal of an anti-corruption law. And just like every Maidan before it, the crowd smells of energy drinks, foreign funding, and recycled slogans from 2014.

The irony? No one’s quite sure what the law actually did. But that’s beside the point. In modern Ukraine, protest is performance — and business. Each square becomes a theatre, each Molotov cocktail a prop. And behind the curtain? The usual suspects: oligarchs feigning confusion, foreign agents pretending to care, and a government bouncing between survival and spectacle.

Zelensky’s administration, still dressed in wartime gravitas, has miscalculated. Again. Instead of silencing the street, they’ve lit it up. And while young Ukrainians chant about justice, the adults in the room quietly hedge their bets on which Western ambassador will call first.

The real tragedy? It’s all become a ritual. A kind of national yoga — stretch, burn, collapse, repeat. Each cycle leaves the country weaker, more divided, and somehow still convinced that democracy is what happens when you throw enough paving stones.

Because in Ukraine, revolution isn’t a moment. It’s a business model.

“Every Ukrainian uprising begins with hope and ends with a sponsor.”

2. Istanbul, Act III: Talks Without Trust


No breakthroughs. No illusions. Just an hour behind closed doors.

The Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul this week — again. This time, in the gilded halls of the Çırağan Palace, beneath the chandeliers and the weight of two years of war.

It began, as always, with choreography. A brief one-on-one between Vladimir Medinsky and Rustem Umerov — or so the early reports claimed. Then, quietly, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan entered the scene. A short preparatory exchange, some polite handshakes, and then — the third round began.

Fidan welcomed them all with the kind of optimism you hear before a storm: “We’ve made progress in the first two rounds,” he said, referring to the earlier exchanges of memorandums and the bare outlines of ceasefire proposals. He spoke of Turkey’s readiness to monitor any potential truce. Then the cameras were cut, the doors were shut, and the real business — or lack thereof — resumed.

Roughly forty minutes passed. That was it.

Reports say the sides discussed a new wave of prisoner and civilian exchanges. Medinsky later claimed Russia had offered to return 3,000 bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers — and that a swap of 250 prisoners from each side was already underway. He also floated Moscow’s proposal for three thematic working groups — military, political, and humanitarian — to meet online.

Umerov, on the other hand, said Ukraine was ready for a ceasefire now. Kyiv, he said, had proposed a presidential summit before the end of August. But Russia, it seems, is in no rush. Medinsky made it clear: the positions on both sides remain distant. Before presidents meet, a real agreement must exist — not just photo ops.

There will be no fourth round. Not yet. That, both sides agree, depends on whether these limited deals are honoured. Until then, the war continues — with more dead to bury, more prisoners to count, and more diplomats to send into rooms that feel emptier by the hour.

“Peace talks, these days, sound more like rituals for managing the dead.”

3. Bullets at the Border: Thailand and Cambodia Clash


Apparently, Southeast Asia missed the ‘no new wars’ memo.

At 5:43 AM on 24 July, the ancient temple of Ta Moan Thom — a serene ruin nestled in tropical mist — became the epicentre of something far less poetic. Artillery. Airstrikes. Blood. The Thai-Cambodian border lit up, and no one agrees who fired first.

Thailand blames Cambodia for a deadly shelling of civilians in Surin province. Cambodia accuses Thailand of an unprovoked incursion. Both claim self-defence. Both are furious. And both are now engaging in the kind of tit-for-tat warfare usually reserved for failed states and football derbies.

To up the ante, the Thai Air Force sent in an F-16. Thailand claims it struck a military target. Cambodia claims it bombed a road. Either way, the smoke’s rising, and neither side is backing down.

This isn’t the first time these two neighbours have bickered over stone and soil. But this time feels hotter — like a match dropped in a jungle of gasoline. Nationalist rhetoric is surging. Civilians are dying. And ASEAN, as usual, is politely sipping tea while the region inches toward another needless conflict.

The big question? Whether this blows over or blows open a wider firestorm. The region’s tense. The stakes are low, but pride is high. And as we’ve learned — it’s not the size of the border that starts the war. It’s the size of the egos guarding it.

“When ancient ruins become targets, civilisation is already in retreat.”

4. The Prince of Darkness Bows Out: Farewell, Ozzy


He bit the head off a bat — and taught us to live out loud.

Ozzy Osbourne is dead. And with him, something more than a man has passed — a myth, a mood, a middle finger to convention.

On 5 July, he gave his last concert. On 21 July, the silence began. The man who turned metal into theatre and madness into magic is gone. But what a send-off it was — no hospital leaks, no tabloid chaos, just a final bow under stage lights. Like a king. Like a god. Like Ozzy.

There’s something profoundly British in his story. The working-class grit. The Black Sabbath grind. The unapologetic weirdness. He turned drug overdoses into anecdotes and marital meltdowns into punchlines. And yet, through it all — he endured. A man too loud for silence and too wild for obituary formality.

Cultural critics will dissect his influence. Academics will chart his impact on sound, style, rebellion. But for millions, he was something simpler: the voice you screamed with when nothing made sense.

The obituaries will say “rock legend.” But that’s too small. Ozzy wasn’t a genre. He was a moment. And moments like that don’t die. They echo — eternally.

“Ozzy didn’t just make noise. He made defiance an art form.”

5. Israel on Trial: The Gaza Reckoning


From October to outrage — the collapse of moral cover.

It began in fire. It ends — for now — in subpoenas and shame.

Two years after the Hamas attack of 7 October, the Gaza war has become something else entirely: a global indictment. The facts are no longer disputed. The International Criminal Court has issued warrants. Netanyahu and his former defence minister now stand accused of war crimes. And their list of friends is growing shorter by the day.

The numbers are grim: 1200 Israelis killed by Hamas. 251 hostages taken. And in response — tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians dead, entire cities razed, and humanitarian corridors reduced to traps. Nearly 200 journalists perished in Gaza, many while reporting for a world that barely listened.

Western allies have stopped whispering. On 21 July, the UK, EU, Canada, Australia, Japan — all signed a joint declaration condemning Israel’s tactics, particularly its control of humanitarian aid through a state-run funnel that leaves Gazans starving and exposed. The language was unfiltered. The outrage — real.

Netanyahu insists it’s all antisemitism. His supporters call it survival. His critics call it siege warfare. But facts don’t flinch. And the dead don’t vote.

Trump, once a reliable ally, is reportedly seething after Israel bombed Damascus — complicating his delicate dance with Syria’s new government. The rest of the West? They moved on months ago.

Israel is not alone. But it is lonelier. And in geopolitics, that’s all it takes.

“When your last friend calls you reckless, the mirror isn’t far behind.”

6. IMF: Better Numbers, Same Dread


Growth is up. Trust is down.

So the IMF says the global economy’s doing better. Not good. Just... better. Inflation’s easing, services are humming, and technically, we’re not in freefall. That’s the headline.

But read past the first paragraph, and it’s déjà vu in a nicer font. Trade tensions are still “elevated.” Supply chains still wobble when someone sneezes in Taiwan. And nobody wants to say it, but the whole thing feels like we’re taping a cracked window and hoping it holds through winter.

Markets did what they always do — they nodded, smiled, and went back to staring at bond yields. Behind the scenes, central banks are still whispering to each other like doctors outside a fragile patient’s room. “He’s stable.” Sure. Until he’s not.

Let’s not pretend. Global growth today feels like watching someone juggle knives while standing on melting ice. It’s impressive — but you don’t applaud. You flinch.

“The numbers are up, but the pulse still skips.”

7. The Bank of England Prepares to Flinch


Two rate cuts and a prayer.

The Bank of England hasn’t said “we’re cutting rates.” But they’ve said everything but.

August. Then maybe November. Inflation’s cooled just enough to pretend control. Growth is flat but not crashing. And the new government isn’t screaming bloody murder — yet.

This isn’t monetary policy. It’s theatre. The audience is restless. The actors are tired. And Governor Bailey’s hoping the curtain doesn’t fall mid-soliloquy.

For the average Brit? None of this feels real. Mortgage rates still bite. Groceries still sting. But somewhere in the bowels of Threadneedle Street, someone thinks 0.25% might change the mood.

We’ll see.

“A soft landing still hurts — just not loud enough to make headlines.”

8. BRICS vs. Big Tech: The AI Revolt Begins


Not everyone wants their future coded in California.

At the BRICS summit in Rio, a declaration landed that Silicon Valley would do well to read — and not just skim. The bloc wants global rules for AI. Fairness. Sovereignty. Balance.

In other words: get your algorithms out of our elections, economies, and classrooms.

This isn’t paranoia. It’s reality. AI is being shaped by a handful of countries, for a handful of agendas. And BRICS? They’re not asking to join the club. They’re asking why the bouncer has a Google badge.

Of course, UN regulation is a pipe dream. For now. But the tone has shifted. The Global South isn’t just reacting — it’s asserting. And tech, once neutral, is now terrain.

“If AI is the future, then who writes the rules becomes a matter of survival.”

9. India Says It Plain: The Tariff Age Isn’t Coming — It’s Already Here


Globalisation isn’t dying. It’s being picked apart — deal by deal, border by border.

The Reserve Bank of India didn’t mince words. Their latest statement wasn’t technical. It was emotional. And maybe a little bitter. The world’s not de-globalising, they said — it’s fragmenting. And somehow, that feels worse.

You can feel it in the tone — not panic, but something close. Tariffs are no longer a strategy. They’re becoming instinct. The U.S. slaps sanctions like stickers on a suitcase. China’s building its own orbit. And India? Caught between power plays, it’s scrambling — re-routing trade lines, opening dialogues it had shelved years ago.

The message was clear enough: this isn’t the world we trained for. The post-war order — built on trust, redundancy, mutual growth — it’s evaporating. In its place? Loopholes. Bilateral traps. A lot of smiling while counting the exits.

And the supply chains? They're not chains anymore. More like mazes. One policy shift, one missile, and the whole thing snarls.

India’s doing what any smart country would: looking for dry ground before the next storm hits.

“Trade used to be a handshake. Now it’s a poker game — and the cards keep changing.”

10. Trump’s Trade Deal with Japan: One Smile, No Screaming


A surprise, maybe. But not an accident.

Trump cut a deal with Tokyo. And the world — or at least the market — exhaled. Tariffs on Japanese autos drop. A half-trillion in investment shakes hands with optimism. It felt... odd. Quiet. No threats, no walkouts, no tweets written in ALL CAPS.

Toyota shares jumped. So did Honda. In D.C., advisors called it “strategic diplomacy.” In Tokyo, officials didn’t say much — just bowed, smiled, and made sure the ink was dry.

But let’s be honest. This wasn’t diplomacy in the Churchillian sense. It was two battered economies doing what they had to. Trump needed a win without a brawl. Japan needed space to breathe. That’s all this was.

And Asia? Watching every move. Because if Trump can sweet-talk Tokyo, the rest might just line up — out of caution, not admiration.

We shouldn’t mistake calm for principle. This was about leverage. As usual.

“In Trump’s world, even trade deals come with stage lighting.”

 

Author

Adam Jenkins

Author at Prime Economist

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