The Week That Shaped the World 13 - 20 June 2025

1. The Oil That Burns the Map. 

It began with rockets over Hormozgan and ended with forecasts of $300-a-barrel crude. The new war — this time between Israel and Iran — isn’t just a regional flare-up. It’s a match lit beneath the global energy market.

Within hours of the strikes, Brent jumped, futures rattled, and analysts dusted off apocalyptic projections. But the real story lies beneath the barrels. This isn’t just war. It’s engineering. The suspicion? That Washington, through its most loyal proxy, is playing with pipelines to weaken its rivals. China and Europe — already limping through stagnant recoveries — can’t handle a fresh oil shock. But maybe that’s the point.

Tehran blames Tel Aviv. Tel Aviv blames “preemptive security.” But nobody mentions the cargo ships rerouting through Africa or the insurance premiums tripling overnight. Because while missiles scream through the Middle East, the real targets are GDP charts.

“When diplomacy fails, sometimes the price of oil does the talking.”

2. Microsoft Fires Humans, Funds Machines. 

Big Tech giveth, Big Tech automates. Microsoft announced another round of mass layoffs — this time targeting thousands in sales and marketing. The reason? AI doesn’t need a coffee break.

While employees refresh job boards, Microsoft quietly pledged over $80 billion to expand its data centres. The pivot is clear: fewer people, more silicon. It’s not personal. It’s infrastructural. AI isn’t just eating jobs. It’s digesting org charts.

The layoffs hit just as Wall Street crowned Microsoft the most valuable company on Earth. Coincidence? Hardly. In a market obsessed with efficiency, humanity has become the overhead.

“In the age of intelligence, labour is a liability.”

3. Jerome Powell’s Poker Face. 

The Fed played it cool. Again. Despite oil jitters and tariff tremors, interest rates held steady. Powell offered the usual script: inflation is sticky, growth is steady, cuts may come — eventually.

But the subtext was louder. The Fed is watching the White House more than the price index. With elections looming and global instability rising, monetary policy has become political theatre.

Markets shrugged. The dollar wobbled. And somewhere in Beijing, a policy advisor smiled. Because when America hesitates, its rivals calculate.

“Neutral rates make for nervous nations.”

4. CEOs Are Nervous. 

That’s the Headline. Confidence isn’t collapsing. It’s eroding. Quietly. Business Roundtable’s quarterly survey showed CEO optimism at its lowest in five years. Hiring plans? Down. Investment forecasts? Flat. Excuses? Geopolitics and inflation.

But the real fear? Policy schizophrenia. Between trade wars, tax threats, and regulatory whiplash, American executives are steering through fog. They’re not panicking. They’re pausing.

When the people who write the paychecks start saving theirs, the economy listens. Carefully.

“Optimism is expensive when every headline comes with a hedge.”

5. Housing: The American Dream, Discounted. 

Real estate is still for sale. But the dream? That’s on clearance. Housing starts fell again. Builder confidence dropped. Lennar — the nation’s second-largest homebuilder — posted weaker-than-expected earnings. The culprit? Rates that hover like vultures.

Millennials can’t buy. Boomers won’t sell. And somewhere between mortgage apps and zoning boards, the market froze. Again.

It’s not a crash. It’s a standoff. And in this one, even the winners are bored.

“In today’s housing market, the real growth is in waiting.”

6. Diplomacy with a Helmet: G7 Rehearses for Real War. 

Canada hosted the G7 this week. But instead of trade deals and carbon pledges, the main agenda was damage control. With Israel and Iran throwing missiles and Russia watching closely, the West’s elite huddled like generals before a storm.

Britain and Canada pushed hardest for calm — not out of peace-loving naïveté, but out of economic necessity. A full-blown Middle East war spikes oil. Oil spikes inflation. And inflation spikes populism.

So the message was clear: De-escalate now, or default later.

“Even the richest nations can’t afford a war they didn’t schedule.”

7. The Strait of Tension. 

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide — but this week, it felt like a tightrope. Iran floated the threat of closure, a move that could choke off 20% of the world’s oil.

The Pentagon bristled. Lloyd’s of London rang alarm bells. Oil tankers rerouted. Futures soared. And beneath it all, the rules-based order held its breath.

One wrong move, one miscalculation, and we’re in a different decade. One where energy security is measured not in barrels, but in battalions.

“Control the chokepoint, and you control the chessboard.”

8. Tehran Says No. 

The backchannels went silent. Talks in Oman between Iran and the U.S. broke down after last week’s airstrikes. The reason? Trust died somewhere over Isfahan.

Tehran accused Washington of negotiating with one hand and targeting with the other. The White House, predictably, said nothing. Diplomacy is now in cold storage — right next to the frozen corpses of past agreements.

The nuclear deal is no longer on life support. It’s been buried. And from its grave grows the shadow of proliferation.

“When talks collapse, doctrine replaces dialogue.”

9. Britain Rethinks Peace. 

Keir Starmer quietly unveiled the most hawkish defence review in a generation. More nukes. More drones. More submarines. And a budget that tips toward 2.5% of GDP, higher than any year since Iraq.

The language was clinical. The logic wasn’t. The UK is preparing for major war. With Russia? Possibly. With China? Eventually. With anyone who crosses the Rubicon? Definitely.

Behind the briefings is a blunt philosophy: prepare now, or perish later. Whether the threat is real or rhetorical no longer matters. The spending is.

“You don’t build submarines for press releases.”

10. America Loads the Dice. 

Trump, back in wartime posture, hinted that U.S. troops could be deployed to support Israel “if needed.” He didn’t say when. Or why. Just that the option’s on the table — next to the chips and cigars.

The Pentagon mobilised select units. Defense contractors smiled. The markets twitched. And somewhere in Langley, someone updated a spreadsheet.

Whether this is a bluff or blueprint is unclear. But what’s certain is that America is once again laying out the playbook for power projection. And this time, the audience isn’t just Iran.

“Every empire practices theatre. The smart ones write the ending.”